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• Coupled atmosphere-ocean models
  :''This page is part of the topic [[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]'' ...past and present-day climates. Simulation of present day climates by these models provides a way of rigorously testing their ability to reproduce reality. Su
  13 KB (2,051 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Ice sheet models
  :''This page is part of the topic [[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]'' ...tion of subglacial sediments. A recent overview of the status of Antarctic models is provided by Huybrechts (2004<ref name="Huybrechts, 2004">Huybrechts, P.
  33 KB (5,053 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic
  ...iological studies. In this section we examine some of the major classes of models used in Antarctic studies. #[[Coupled atmosphere-ocean models]]
  2 KB (322 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Ocean models of the Southern Ocean
  :''This page is part of the topic [[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]'' ...omise between cost and physical realism. This is especially true for ocean models because the computational cost is always high, and can be hundreds of times
  37 KB (5,859 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Regional climate models
  :''This page is part of the topic [[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]'' ...e large amount of computer time needed by the complex atmosphere and ocean models, but also due to a lack of observations and knowledge of the cryospheric co
  5 KB (833 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014

Page text matches

• Antarctic and Southern Ocean sea level projections
  ...or all greenhouse gas scenarios, the light shading is the envelope for all models and all scenarios and the outer lines include an allowance for an additiona ...on from Greenland and Antarctica. However, as mentioned earlier, ice sheet models are incomplete and do not allow for a rapid dynamic response of the ice she
  16 KB (2,491 words) - 12:16, 22 August 2014
• Antarctic climate and environment change over the next 100 years
  ...ace air temperature it is possible to use the projections from the various models to derive various estimates of how temperature may change over land and oce The atmospheric component of the next generation of climate models must have interactive chemistry if we are to obtain meaningful projections
  5 KB (788 words) - 15:49, 6 August 2014
• Antarctic climate and environment history in the pre-instrumental period
  .... The ice core data are also crucial in benchmarking climate and ice sheet models against observations. The longest ice core records date back over 800 ka (J
  17 KB (2,554 words) - 15:45, 6 August 2014
• Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment
  ##[[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]
  4 KB (504 words) - 16:51, 21 August 2014
• Antarctic deglaciation and its impact on global sea level
  ...et during and after the LGM and its contribution to global sea level. Most models predict the Antarctic Ice Sheet to have contributed c. 20 m to global sea l .../ref>), but the limited distribution of Antarctic RSL sites means that the models are still not as well constrained as for other continents.
  21 KB (3,294 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Atmospheric chemistry changes over the 21st century
  ...be used for predictions of the future. Instead, coupled Chemistry-Climate Models are used. Those whose results are described below vary in their skill in re '''Table 5.1''' Models whose results appear in Figures 5.11, 5.12 and 5.13; * bromine chemistry no
  27 KB (4,305 words) - 15:22, 6 August 2014
• Atmospheric circulation changes in the instrumental period
  The availability of gridded data from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models and reanalyses allows entirely automated methods to be used that can provid
  54 KB (8,177 words) - 12:38, 22 August 2014
• Atmospheric circulation changes over the 21st century
  ...ulti-model study, ''Ocean Sci.'', '''1''', 81-95.</ref>), although in some models a peak at around 7 years is observed (Marshall et al., 2007<ref name="Marsh ...Twentieth century simulation of the Southern Hemisphere climate in coupled models. Part 1: Large scale circulation variability, ''Clim. Dyn.'', '''26''', 217
  29 KB (4,462 words) - 16:11, 22 August 2014
• Attribution of ice sheet changes in the instrumental period
  ...40-year trends similar to those observed are reproduced in global climate models forced by a combination of ozone depletion, and increasing greenhouse gas c ...and of the consequences for inland ice sheet flow are needed to test such models. To attribute the glaciological changes in the Amundsen Sea sector to a par
  13 KB (1,943 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Biological modelling and bioregionalization
  :''This page is part of the topic [[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]'' ...rona antarctica (Myctophidae, Pisces) in Kerguelen by generalized additive models and geographic information systems, ''Polar Biol.'', '''30''', 951-959.</re
  8 KB (1,225 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Changes in Antarctic snowfall over the past 50 years
  ...ntarctic surface mass balance and systematic biases in general circulation models, ''J. Geophys. Res.'', '''106''', 20653-20664.</ref>), van Lipzig et al. (2 ...meterizations of polar cloud microphysics and precipitation in atmospheric models (Guo et al., 2003<ref name="Guo et al, 2003">Guo, Z., Bromwich, D.H. and Ca
  20 KB (3,125 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Changes in sea ice extent through the Holocene
  ...is debated. In order to improve the incorporation of sea ice into computer models of future climate change it will be essential to use proxy records to repre
  24 KB (3,785 words) - 16:17, 22 August 2014
• Changes to the Terrestrial cryosphere over the next 100 years
  ...radically revise their view of ice sheet sensitivity to climate. Existing models, based primarily on earlier views of the essential governing dynamics of ic ...et, Science, 320, No. 5877, 781-783.</ref>). It must be borne in mind that models disagree over many other details of atmospheric climate change in Antarctic
  26 KB (4,124 words) - 13:04, 22 August 2014
• Concluding remarks on the pre-instrumental period
  ...at have survived through glacial cycles also challenges existing ice sheet models where most of the available habitats are covered at the LGM.
  7 KB (1,082 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Coupled atmosphere-ocean models
  :''This page is part of the topic [[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]'' ...past and present-day climates. Simulation of present day climates by these models provides a way of rigorously testing their ability to reproduce reality. Su
  13 KB (2,051 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Deglaciation of the continental shelf, coastal margin and continental interior
  ...elf. While the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Sheet (APIS) has, according to some models, been a relatively minor (1-2 m) contributor to post-LGM sea level rise, it
  22 KB (3,430 words) - 12:03, 22 August 2014
• ENSO links and teleconnections to vertebrate life histories and population
  ...004. Southern Ocean sea ice and its wider linkages: insights revealed from models and observations, ''Antarctic Science'', '''16''', 387-400.</ref>). Food we
  15 KB (2,381 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Future developments in Antarctic observation
  ...ched in 2009. Ocean salinity observations will be important to studies and models of the circulation of the Southern Ocean and the role of sea ice. These obs ...hese data are essential for understanding ocean processes and as inputs to models for forecasting future change.
  7 KB (1,040 words) - 15:16, 22 August 2014
• Glacial interglacial cycles
  ...sea ice cover, sea level rise and rising terrestrial carbon storage. Other models have identified the importance of on and off states of the southern overtur
  35 KB (5,415 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Holocene climate change in the Ross Sea region (RS)
  ...in percent derived with Modern Analog Techniques and Generalized Additive Models. Signature legend: (1) concomitant occurrence of cold-water indicator diato
  17 KB (2,705 words) - 16:43, 22 August 2014
• Ice sheet models
  :''This page is part of the topic [[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]'' ...tion of subglacial sediments. A recent overview of the status of Antarctic models is provided by Huybrechts (2004<ref name="Huybrechts, 2004">Huybrechts, P.
  33 KB (5,053 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Impacts of instrumental period climate change on invertebrates
  ...thermal ectotherms. In: Davison W, Williams CW (Eds) Antarctic Ecosystems: Models for a Wider Understanding, Caxton Press, Christchurch, New Zealand, 109-122 ...al growth rates of Antractic krill (''Euphausia superba''): II: Predictive models based on food, temperature, body length, sex, and maturity stage, ''Limnolo
  25 KB (3,817 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Key points - 2009 version
  ...s their consequences for the biosphere, and shows how the latest numerical models project changes into the future, taking into account human interference in ..., which is sensitive to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The models can be weighted according to their skill in simulating modern conditions.</
  48 KB (7,673 words) - 17:27, 22 August 2014
• Key points - 2013 version
  ...DRILLing (ANDRILL) project geological records, a feature also simulated by models (Pollard and DeConto, 2009<ref name="Pollard and DeConto, 2009">Pollard, D. ...) points to significant loss of Greenland and Antarctic ice. While climate models are able to capture the patterns of the orbital-driven warming of the Arcti
  142 KB (22,142 words) - 15:25, 6 August 2014
• Long term sea level change in the instrumental period
  ...pointed out by Milne (2009<ref name="Milne, 2009">Milne, G.A. 2009. Using models to inform the field community: Far-field sea level data applications, PAGES
  8 KB (1,342 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Marine and terrestrial pollution
  ...es. In: Davison W, Howard-Williams C, Broady P (eds) Antarctic Ecosystems: Models for Wider Ecological Understanding. Caxton Press, Christchurch, 315-318.</r ...overall transport of POPs to remote regions is accelerated with respect to models treating air and water separately (Beyer and Matthies, 2001<ref name="Beyer
  38 KB (5,770 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Marine picoplankton response to climate change
  ...fferent scenarios both experimentally and computationally to inform future models and enhance our understanding of Southern Ocean microbial ecology.
  2 KB (305 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Meteorological and ozone observing in the Antarctic
  ...egions, and hence the forecasts made by Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. Today, regions such as the Southern Ocean, previously a data void, are fil ...s, ''Ann. Glaciol'', '''20''', 242-248.</ref>). Satellites and atmospheric models provide some information about snow accumulation away from traverse routes,
  59 KB (9,046 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Modelling of the ACC and polar gyres
  ...els throw up contradictions that cannot be solved until new generations of models or observations become available. ...including both general circulation models (GCM) and simplified theoretical models, have been carried out in an effort to improve our understanding of the bas
  8 KB (1,343 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic
  ...iological studies. In this section we examine some of the major classes of models used in Antarctic studies. #[[Coupled atmosphere-ocean models]]
  2 KB (322 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Near-shore marine disturbances over the next 100 years
  ...rror. Nevertheless, as shown above, extreme temperatures are not expected; models suggest a 0.5&ordm; to 1.0&ordm;C rise in the temperature of Southern Ocean ...do suggest the fauna is highly sensitive to acute warming. Current climate models suggest that acute warming is unlikely, as are average rises of more than 1
  54 KB (8,443 words) - 16:49, 22 August 2014
• Observations, data accuracy and tools
  In this chapter we consider the various types of data and models that are available to investigate climatic and environmental change in the Mathematical models have been utilized increasingly in Antarctic research. Initially their appl
  2 KB (307 words) - 15:44, 6 August 2014
• Ocean change over the next 100 years
  ...age appears to be another important driving factor of the ACC transport in models. The errors in the simulation of this density gradient, partly due to probl ...s. The gyre strengths and structures show a great range across the various models. The link between the gyre strengths and wind stress curls is weak, indicat
  33 KB (5,321 words) - 14:57, 22 August 2014
• Ocean models of the Southern Ocean
  :''This page is part of the topic [[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]'' ...omise between cost and physical realism. This is especially true for ocean models because the computational cost is always high, and can be hundreds of times
  37 KB (5,859 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Pathways of research in cold-adapted organisms and climate change
  ...ty analyses and models, as well as mechanistic studies and mechanism-based models. This approach demands an intensive coordination, not only of ongoing, but ...d to predict transport of propagules into (and out of) the Antarctic. Such models can also be used to elucidate advective processes in the Southern Ocean and
  25 KB (3,663 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Precipitation changes over the 21st century
  ...Ann. Glaciol.'', '''39''', 271-275.</ref>) and are not included in climate models. Giovinetto et al (1997<ref name="Giovinetto et al, 1997">Giovinetto, M.B., ...7, doi:10.1029/2006JD007482.</ref>) found that only 5 of 15 global climate models examined were able to simulate long term average values of net precipitatio
  18 KB (2,723 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Recommendations
  ...to realistically represent many high latitude processes and their effects. Models must take into account in far greater detail than at present the complex or ...cts. In addition, the models need to be interactively coupled to ice shelf models so that the impact of changes in ocean circulation and water mass delivery
  14 KB (2,069 words) - 15:14, 22 August 2014
• Regional climate models
  :''This page is part of the topic [[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]'' ...e large amount of computer time needed by the complex atmosphere and ocean models, but also due to a lack of observations and knowledge of the cryospheric co
  5 KB (833 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Satellite observations of the Southern Ocean
  ...tudes is as data to be assimilated into numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. For example, Andrews and Bell (1998<ref name="Andrews and Bell, 1998">Andr
  20 KB (3,084 words) - 14:57, 6 August 2014
• Sea ice biological and physical modeling
  :''This page is part of the topic [[Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic]]'' ...rce (Liebig&rsquo;s law). The difference between empirical and mechanistic models resides in the use of self-adapting variables by the latter to predict futu
  18 KB (2,786 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Sea ice change over the 21st century
  ...cycle of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice coverages by 11 major global climate models, J. Geophys. Res., 111, doi:10.1029/2005JC003408.</ref>). ...doi:03110.01029/02007JD008933.</ref>). There is strong consensus among the models for an Antarctica-wide decrease in sea ice; the inter-model standard deviat
  4 KB (684 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Sea ice over the last million years
  ...in percent derived with Modern Analog Techniques and Generalized Additive Models. Signature legend: (1) concomitant occurrence of cold-water indicator diato
  13 KB (2,050 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Small-scale processes in the Southern Ocean
  ...r to small-scale mixing was assumed, which could be applied in large-scale models by properly selected mixing parameters. However, improved measurements of t ...transferred to the mesoscale eddy field. Current conceptual and numerical models of the Southern Ocean overturning circulation (see Rintoul et al. (2001<ref
  18 KB (2,816 words) - 14:33, 6 August 2014
• Temperature changes in the instrumental period
  ...tropospheric warming they need to be represented more realistically in the models.
  30 KB (4,676 words) - 17:04, 22 August 2014
• Temperature changes over the 21st century
  ...ature trend over the Twenty First Century.png|Figure 5.6]]). All the CMIP3 models show a warming, but with a large range from 0.14 to 0.5&deg;C/decade under ...the southward migration of the storm tracks that is simulated by the CMIP3 models (Yin, 2005<ref name="Yin, 2005">Yin, J. H. 2005. A consistent poleward shif
  8 KB (1,217 words) - 14:34, 6 August 2014
• Terrestrial biology over the next 100 years
  ...a situation where we can develop a quantitative predictive model (or even models) that completely qualifies the response of Antarctic ecosystems to climate
  22 KB (3,193 words) - 14:34, 6 August 2014
• The Antarctic marine ecosystem in the year 2100
  ..., C., Holland, M., Str&oelig;ve, J. and Weimerskirch, H. 2009. Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin popu ...report we have chosen to use the average temperatures thrown up by IPCC 19 models, rather than any of the extremes.
  20 KB (3,055 words) - 14:34, 6 August 2014
• The Antarctic Peninsula cryosphere in the instrumental period
  ...16-530.</ref>). Satellite radar interferometry has been used with ice flow models to show that the ice shelf sped up considerably in the period before its fi
  40 KB (6,031 words) - 17:17, 22 August 2014
• The Australian sector in the instrumental period
  ...ervational evidence of the increase in ACC transport also predicted by the models (B&ouml;ning et al., 2008<ref name="B&ouml;ning et al, 2008">B&ouml;ning, C
  14 KB (2,205 words) - 14:34, 6 August 2014
• The climate of the Antarctic and its variability
  ...bution of sea ice. Studies of coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation models show that the strength of the SAM should increase as the Earth warms, confi
  12 KB (1,933 words) - 15:38, 22 August 2014