Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment

This volume provides a comprehensive, up-to-date account of how the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic continent and Southern Ocean has changed from Deep Time until the present day. It also considers how the Antarctic environment may change over the next century in a world where greenhouse gas concentrations are much higher than occurred over the last few centuries. The Antarctic is a highly coupled system with non-linear interactions between the atmosphere, ocean, ice and biota, along with complex links to the rest of the Earth system. In preparing this volume our approach has been highly cross-disciplinary, with the goal of reflecting the importance of the continent in global issues, such as sea level rise, the separation of natural climate variability from anthropogenic influences, food stocks, biodiversity and carbon uptake by the ocean. One hundred experts in Antarctic science have contributed and drafts of the manuscript were reviewed by over 200 scientists. We hope that it will be of value to all scientists with an interest in the Antarctic continent and the Southern Ocean, policy makers and those concerned with the deployment of observing systems and the development of climate models.

Editors

Contents

1. Preface
2. Key points
   1. Key points - 2009 version
3. The Antarctic environment in the global system
   1. The physical setting of Antarctica
   2. The Antarctic cryosphere
   3. The role of the Antarctic in the global climate system
   4. Observations for studies of environmental change in the Antarctic
   5. The climate of the Antarctic and its variability
   6. Biota of the Antarctic
4. Observations, data accuracy and tools
   1. Meteorological and ozone observing in the Antarctic
   2. In-situ ocean observations
   3. Satellite observations of the Southern Ocean
   4. Sea ice observations
   5. Observations of the ice sheet
   6. Observations of Antarctic permafrost
   7. Sea level observations
   8. Observations of marine biology
   9. Observations of terrestrial biology
   10. Models of the physical and biological environment of the Antarctic
   11. Future developments in Antarctic observation
5. Antarctic climate and environment history in the pre-instrumental period
   1. Deep time
   2. The last million years
   3. The Holocene
   4. Biological responses to climate change
   5. Concluding remarks on the pre-instrumental period
6. Antarctic climate and environment change in the instrumental period
   1. Atmospheric circulation changes in the instrumental period
   2. Temperature changes in the instrumental period
   3. Changes in Antarctic snowfall over the past 50 years
   4. Atmospheric chemistry in the instrumental period
   5. The Southern Ocean in the instrumental period
   6. Antarctic sea ice cover in the instrumental period
   7. The ice sheet in the instrumental period
   8. Changes in Antarctic permafrost over the past 50 years
   9. Long term sea level change in the instrumental period
   10. Marine biology in the instrumental period
   11. The Southern Ocean carbon cycle response to historical climate change
   12. Terrestrial biology in the instrumental period
7. Antarctic climate and environment change over the next 100 years
   1. The IPCC fourth assessment report
   2. Atmospheric change over the next 100 years
   3. Ocean change over the next 100 years
   4. Sea ice change over the 21st century
   5. Changes to the Terrestrial cryosphere over the next 100 years
   6. 21st century evolution of Antarctic permafrost
   7. Antarctic and Southern Ocean sea level projections
   8. The Southern Ocean carbon cycle response to future climate change
   9. Biological responses to 21st climate climate change
8. Recommendations